Shareable intelligence

Burkina Faso

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Burkina Faso

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,148 2025	$1,223 – $1,427	$1,290 – $1,711
Electricity access	34% 2024	40% – 47%	44% – 54%
Internet use	28% 2024	37% – 46%	42% – 56%

Growth bands: 1.07% · 2.38% · 3.7% a year per person, from Burkina Faso's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Burkina Faso

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 34% of the population (2024) to between 40% and 47% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 43% — a rise of 8.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 15.6 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 263,018 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 28.3% of the population (2024) to between 37% and 46% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 41% — a rise of 12.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 16.2 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 1 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,223 to $1,427 by 2031. The $204 between them is under a quarter of today's $1,148.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 27.3 million — roughly 3.2 million more people than in 2025, about 16.3 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 34% of the population (2024) to between 44% and 54% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 48% — a rise of 14.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 15.6 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 338,927 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 28.3% of the population (2024) to between 42% and 56% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 48% — a rise of 19.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 15.6 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.7 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,290 to $1,711 by 2036. The $421 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $1,148.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 30 million — roughly 5.9 million more people than in 2025, about 18.5 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

IMF staff completed the 2026 Article IV mission and reached a staff-level agreement with Burkina Faso on the fifth review under…. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
Burkina Faso is identified as being at the drafting stage of a national AI policy. Recorded as proposed: it still has to be adopted before it counts as a change in how things work.
For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 3.7% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 4.6% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Burkina Faso

Political instability & conflict

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Political stability scored -1.9 in 2024, in the lowest band of the Worldwide Governance Indicators, with 2.1 million people internally displaced (2025). The distance between scenarios here is set by whether the security situation holds, not by economic policy. The modelled band, drawn from recent economic history, does not describe what further deterioration would mean.

Why the band cannot contain it

Conflict does not appear in a trailing growth average until after it has already happened. A country at peace for fifteen years has no war in its variance.

What would invalidate the modelled band

Onset or escalation of armed conflict. The modelled band is drawn from economic history and contains no war; if this occurs, disregard the quantitative path entirely.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Burkina Faso

6 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Burkina Faso. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

2 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

6 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Burkina Faso · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels