Shareable intelligence

Central African Republic

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Central Africa

Central African Republic

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$556 2025	$384 – $708	$282 – $865
Electricity access	18% 2024	21% – 24%	23% – 28%
Internet use	14% 2024	18% – 24%	22% – 31%

Growth bands: -6% · -1.2% · 4.1% a year per person, from Central African Republic's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Central African Republic

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 18.2% of the population (2024) to between 21% and 24% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 22% — a rise of 4.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 5.2 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 680,540 more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 13.8% of the population (2024) to between 18% and 24% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 21% — a rise of 7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 5.3 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 537,191 more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $384 to $708 by 2031. The $324 between them is wider than half today's $556.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 6.7 million — roughly 1.2 million more people than in 2025, about 3.4 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 18.2% of the population (2024) to between 23% and 28% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 25% — a rise of 6.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 5.8 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.3 million more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 13.8% of the population (2024) to between 22% and 31% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 25% — a rise of 11.6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 5.7 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 996,427 more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $282 to $865 by 2036. The $583 between them is wider than half today's $556.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 7.7 million — roughly 2.2 million more people than in 2025, about 4 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 4.1% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 4.2% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Central African Republic

Political instability & conflict

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Political stability scored -1.8 in 2024, in the lowest band of the Worldwide Governance Indicators, with 427,000 people internally displaced (2025). The distance between scenarios here is set by whether the security situation holds, not by economic policy. The modelled band, drawn from recent economic history, does not describe what further deterioration would mean.

Why the band cannot contain it

Conflict does not appear in a trailing growth average until after it has already happened. A country at peace for fifteen years has no war in its variance.

What would invalidate the modelled band

Onset or escalation of armed conflict. The modelled band is drawn from economic history and contains no war; if this occurs, disregard the quantitative path entirely.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Central African Republic

4 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

4 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Central African Republic. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

4 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Central African Republic · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels