Shareable intelligence

Cabo Verde

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Cabo Verde

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$5,796 2025	$4,742 – $9,721	$4,012 – $14,957
Electricity access	98% 2024	99% – 100%	100% – 100%
Internet use	75% 2024	83% – 89%	87% – 94%

Growth bands: -3.29% · 2.9% · 9% a year per person, from Cabo Verde's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
Everyone dependent on public salaries and services when prices fall
Irrigating farmers and cities drawing on the same stressed sources

2031 versus 2036 · Cabo Verde

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access is already 98% (2024). It is not where this country's 2031 is decided.
Internet use moves from 74.7% of the population (2024) to between 83% and 89% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 86% — a rise of 11 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 77,329 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 55,899 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $4,742 to $9,721 by 2031. The $4,979 between them is wider than half today's $5,796.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 540,764 — roughly 13,438 more people than in 2025, about 383,921 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 98.4% of the population (2024) to between 100% and 100% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 100% — a rise of 1.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 550 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 7,887 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 74.7% of the population (2024) to between 87% and 94% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 90% — a rise of 15.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 53,946 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 79,281 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $4,012 to $14,957 by 2036. The $10,945 between them is wider than half today's $5,796.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 550,474 — roughly 23,148 more people than in 2025, about 399,604 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 9% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 15.3% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Cabo Verde

Commodity dependence

Material — Could push the outcome outside the modelled band.

Natural resource rents were 18% of GDP in 2021. Enough to transmit a global price swing into domestic fiscal conditions.

Why the band cannot contain it

The growth band averages across a commodity cycle, which flatters producers in a downswing and understates their exposure in an upswing. Price is set elsewhere and transmits to the budget within a quarter.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained move in the country's principal export price of more than roughly a third. The band averages across a cycle and understates both tails.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Cabo Verde

6 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

4 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Cabo Verde. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

2 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

3 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

4 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Cabo Verde · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels