Shareable intelligence

Eritrea

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Eritrea

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$689 2011	$258 – $1,389	$202 – $1,655
Electricity access	55% 2024	60% – 64%	62% – 70%
Internet use	14% 2020	23% – 33%	27% – 40%

Growth bands: -4.79% · -0.61% · 3.57% a year per person, from Eritrea's own 15-year record (1997–2011) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess
Off-grid communities, whose wait lengthens if capital concentrates on urban and industrial load

2031 versus 2036 · Eritrea

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 55.3% of the population (2024) to between 60% and 64% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 62% — a rise of 6.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.6 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 39,588 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 14.3% of the population (2020) to between 23% and 33% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 27% — a rise of 12.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 3 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 115,506 fewer than in 2020, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $258 to $1,389 by 2031. The $1,131 between them is wider than half today's $689.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 4.1 million — roughly 478,043 more people than in 2025, about 2.4 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 55.3% of the population (2024) to between 62% and 70% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 65% — a rise of 10.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.6 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 51,954 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 14.3% of the population (2020) to between 27% and 40% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 32% — a rise of 18.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 3 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 40,824 fewer than in 2020, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $202 to $1,655 by 2036. The $1,453 between them is wider than half today's $689.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 4.5 million — roughly 902,754 more people than in 2025, about 2.7 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 3.6% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 6.9% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Eritrea

Commodity dependence

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Natural resource rents were 27% of GDP in 2011. At this concentration the budget — and therefore public salaries and services — tracks prices set on other continents. The scenario question is not whether the resources exist but whether any value is captured, processed and taxed before they leave.

Why the band cannot contain it

The growth band averages across a commodity cycle, which flatters producers in a downswing and understates their exposure in an upswing. Price is set elsewhere and transmits to the budget within a quarter.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained move in the country's principal export price of more than roughly a third. The band averages across a cycle and understates both tails.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Eritrea

4 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

5 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Eritrea. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

5 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Eritrea · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels