Shareable intelligence

Guinea

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Guinea

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,877 2025	$2,073 – $2,542	$2,252 – $3,272
Electricity access	54% 2024	61% – 69%	65% – 76%
Internet use	33% 2024	43% – 53%	49% – 63%

Growth bands: 1.67% · 3.42% · 5.18% a year per person, from Guinea's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Guinea

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 53.8% of the population (2024) to between 61% and 69% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 64% — a rise of 10.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 6.1 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 837,221 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 33.3% of the population (2024) to between 43% and 53% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 47% — a rise of 14 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 9 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 1 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,073 to $2,542 by 2031. The $469 between them is under a quarter of today's $1,877.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 17.1 million — roughly 2 million more people than in 2025, about 10 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 53.8% of the population (2024) to between 65% and 76% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 70% — a rise of 16.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 5.6 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.4 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 33.3% of the population (2024) to between 49% and 63% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 55% — a rise of 22.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 8.4 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.7 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,252 to $3,272 by 2036. The $1,020 between them is wider than half today's $1,877.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 18.8 million — roughly 3.7 million more people than in 2025, about 11.3 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 5.2% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 8.3% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Guinea

Political instability & conflict

Material — Could push the outcome outside the modelled band.

Political stability scored -1 in 2024. Instability at this level can move the outcome outside the modelled band in either direction, depending on whether it consolidates or spreads.

Why the band cannot contain it

Conflict does not appear in a trailing growth average until after it has already happened. A country at peace for fifteen years has no war in its variance.

What would invalidate the modelled band

Onset or escalation of armed conflict. The modelled band is drawn from economic history and contains no war; if this occurs, disregard the quantitative path entirely.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Guinea

5 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

4 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Guinea. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

2 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

4 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Guinea · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels