Shareable intelligence

Guinea-Bissau

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,124 2025	$1,118 – $1,407	$1,113 – $1,697
Electricity access	44% 2024	53% – 62%	58% – 72%
Internet use	30% 2024	39% – 50%	45% – 60%

Growth bands: -0.09% · 1.86% · 3.82% a year per person, from Guinea-Bissau's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Guinea-Bissau

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 43.7% of the population (2024) to between 53% and 62% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 57% — a rise of 13.3 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.1 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 175,610 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 29.8% of the population (2024) to between 39% and 50% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 44% — a rise of 14 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.4 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 153,930 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,118 to $1,407 by 2031. The $289 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $1,124.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 2.5 million — roughly 287,385 more people than in 2025, about 1.5 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 43.7% of the population (2024) to between 58% and 72% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 65% — a rise of 20.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 983,373 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 283,104 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 29.8% of the population (2024) to between 45% and 60% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 52% — a rise of 22.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.3 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 246,281 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,113 to $1,697 by 2036. The $584 between them is wider than half today's $1,124.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 2.8 million — roughly 528,375 more people than in 2025, about 1.7 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 3.8% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 5.5% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Guinea-Bissau

Education & workforce capability

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Gross tertiary enrolment was 2.6% in 2006, with adult literacy at 64% (2022). A state cannot regulate, procure, audit or localise technologies it has too few people trained to understand. This constrains AI governance, energy planning and public administration simultaneously, and it takes a decade to change — which is exactly this platform's horizon.

Why the band cannot contain it

Human capital compounds on a decade lag. The tertiary enrolment rate today sets the ceiling on what the state can regulate and what firms can build in 2036, and no growth average encodes that.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained collapse or expansion in enrolment, or large-scale emigration of trained professionals.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Guinea-Bissau

4 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

5 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Guinea-Bissau. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

5 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Guinea-Bissau · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels