Shareable intelligence

Mauritius

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Mauritius

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$12,991 2025	$12,142 – $19,128	$11,477 – $26,404
Electricity access	100% 2024	100% – 100%	100% – 100%
Internet use	73% 2024	81% – 87%	84% – 92%

Growth bands: -1.12% · 2.95% · 6.66% a year per person, from Mauritius's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
Families one illness away from selling productive assets
young people already outside work at 17.4% in 2025, in a labour market the projections grow but do not restructure

2031 versus 2036 · Mauritius

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2031 is decided.
Internet use moves from 73.3% of the population (2024) to between 81% and 87% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 84% — a rise of 10.3 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 201,000 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 130,981 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $12,142 to $19,128 by 2031. The $6,986 between them is wider than half today's $12,991.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.

By 2036

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2036 is decided.
Internet use moves from 73.3% of the population (2024) to between 84% and 92% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 88% — a rise of 14.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 142,017 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 189,964 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $11,477 to $26,404 by 2036. The $14,927 between them is wider than half today's $12,991.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 6.7% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 8.6% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Mauritius

Sovereign debt & fiscal distress

Material — Could push the outcome outside the modelled band.

Central government debt was 57% of GDP in 2019, against revenue of 25%. Manageable in good conditions, constraining in a shock.

Why the band cannot contain it

A default is a discontinuity. Trailing variance cannot contain an event that has not yet occurred, and debt service crowds out the spending that produces future growth long before any default.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A missed sovereign payment, a disorderly restructuring, or loss of market access. None of these appear in a trailing growth average until after the fact.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Mauritius

5 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Mauritius. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Mauritius · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels