Shareable intelligence

Seychelles

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Seychelles

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$19,449 2025	$17,894 – $30,676	$16,692 – $44,843
Electricity access	100% 2024	100% – 100%	100% – 100%
Internet use	88% 2024	93% – 96%	95% – 97%

Growth bands: -1.38% · 3.26% · 7.89% a year per person, from Seychelles's own 15-year record (2010–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

2031 versus 2036 · Seychelles

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2031 is decided.
Internet use moves from 87.8% of the population (2024) to between 93% and 96% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 95% — a rise of 6.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 7,124 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 7,827 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $17,894 to $30,676 by 2031. The $12,782 between them is wider than half today's $19,449.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 129,519 — roughly 6,789 more people than in 2025, about 90,953 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2036 is decided.
Internet use moves from 87.8% of the population (2024) to between 95% and 97% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 96% — a rise of 8.6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 4,703 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 10,248 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $16,692 to $44,843 by 2036. The $28,151 between them is wider than half today's $19,449.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 130,640 — roughly 7,910 more people than in 2025, about 90,169 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 7.9% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 12.1% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Seychelles

Sovereign debt & fiscal distress

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Central government debt was 175% of GDP in 2008, against revenue of 29%. At this ratio debt service competes directly with schools, clinics and salaries, and refinancing terms — set abroad — become a domestic policy constraint.

Why the band cannot contain it

A default is a discontinuity. Trailing variance cannot contain an event that has not yet occurred, and debt service crowds out the spending that produces future growth long before any default.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A missed sovereign payment, a disorderly restructuring, or loss of market access. None of these appear in a trailing growth average until after the fact.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Seychelles

4 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

6 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Seychelles. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

6 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

6 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Seychelles · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels